Beijing’s trade spat with the United States has cleared the path for Canada’s Atlantic lobster exports to take center stage, but whether catches and prices hit the mark remains to be seen for the 2018 season.

Canadian producers have seen exports to China ramp up significantly since China’s 25 percent import tariff was imposed on US lobsters, July 6.

“With the US tariffs our already robust business with China grew dramatically, with high demand during a time of year that we have limited supply,” said Geoff Irvine, executive director of the Lobster Council of Canada.

“On the live side of the business, volumes doubled in July, and tripled in August."

The United States remains Canada’s biggest export market, but it is now followed by China, South Korea, Japan and EU countries, Irvine told IntraFish.

“No question, it increased business for all lobster exporters in Canada,” Stewart Lamont, managing director of Tangier Lobster Company told IntraFish, adding his company’s sales to mainland China have doubled since July, although his two key markets remain South Korea and Belgium.

The US-China tariff war has "opened the floodgates for Canada,” Patrick Swim, CEO of Canadian Atlantic Lobster, told IntraFish. “Asia has exploded! To the point where we don’t have enough airplanes in Halifax."

Indeed, though Canada is well poised to exploit the demand glut from Asia, it does not have the lift capacity of its southern neighbor yet, Swim said.

Tariffs also eased to EU

The Canadian lobster industry is also reaping the benefits of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, a free trade deal with the EU kick-started last December, which got rid of an 8 percent tariff on live lobster.

“There has been a marginal increase on the live side, where the 8 percent tariff came off immediately, with a slower increase in processed items where the tariffs are coming off more slowly over three to five years,” Irvine said.

Canadian lobster also sees increased demand during the holiday season,with Belgium, the Netherlands and France taking a lion’s share of the Christmas sales.

A tense time as 2018 fishery opens

However, without landings, the full gains from increased demand can't be realized and a five day delay on the Nova Scotia lobster fishery last week put interested parties on edge.

Fishermen were frustrated, importers were anxious, and tensions ran high due to the delay, Swim told IntraFish.

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Now the catches are rolling in, lobster prices will still depend on the quality (shell hardness, meat yield and blood protein level), and could range from CAD 5 per pound to CAD 7.50 per pound this year, Swim said. If catches are down, prices could double.

Swim gave the example of 2012/2013, when high supplies and low demand pushed down the per-pound price to CAD 3.25. Fishermen went on a strike then, tying up their boats and refusing to fish, said Swim.

The average price had increased to CAD 6.50-7.50 for the six-month fishing season last year in lobster fishing area 33 and 34, which had 1,688 boats.

What this year's lobster prices will be, time will tell.